[Todos CMAT] Seminario de Probabilidad y Estadística

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Seminario de Probabilidad y Estadística
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Título: "Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold"

Expositor: Rodrigo M. Corder (University of Sao Paulo)

Resumen:
 
Abstract: As severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
spreads, the susceptible subpopulation is depleted causing the incidence of new
cases to decline. Variation in individual susceptibility or exposure to
infection exacerbates this effect. Individuals that are more susceptible or more
exposed tend to be infected earlier, depleting the susceptible subpopulation of
those who are at higher risk of infection. This selective depletion of
susceptibles intensifies the deceleration in incidence. Eventually, susceptible
numbers become low enough to prevent epidemic growth or, in other words, the
herd immunity threshold (HIT) is reached. Although estimates vary, simple
calculations suggest that herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 requires 60-70% of the
population to be immune. By fitting epidemiological models that allow for
heterogeneity to SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks across the globe, we show that variation
in susceptibility or exposure to infection reduces these estimates. Accurate
measurements of heterogeneity are therefore of paramount importance in
controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Viernes 19/6 a las 10:30, https://us02web.zoom.us/j/9432620988

Contacto: Alejandro Cholaquidis - acholaquidis en hotmail.com
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" Seminario    interdisciplinario de matemática, probabilidad, estadística,
epidemiología, biología ...con el objetivo de intentar comprender la pandemia
causada por el virus SARS-CoV-2",

Calendario:

http://www.cmat.edu.uy/~mordecki/ seminario /

Link para conectarse:

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/9432620988

Disponibles en:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOPZEOrLSAYPz2qCAL-KqMg?view_as=subscriber
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