[Todos CMAT] Seminario de Probabilidad y Estadística

[seminarios en cmat.edu.uy]

Seminario de Probabilidad y Estadística
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Título: "Modelling the COVID 19 pandemic requires a model... but also data! M"

Expositor: Marc Lavielle (Inria & Ecole Polytechnique, France)

Resumen:
 
We propose to build a SIR-type model for the Covid-19 data provided by the
Johns-Hopkins University. The data available for each country are the daily
number of confirmed cases and the daily number of deaths. The model is adapted
in order to fit the data at an aggregated level like a country. In other words,
the parameters of the model change from country to country to reflect
differences in dynamics. In particular, the model integrates a time-dependent
transmission rate, whose variations can be thought to be related to the public
health measures taken by the country in question. A piecewise linear model is
used for the transmission rate to take into account these possible variations.
The proposed model may seem simple, but it should be understood that it does not
pretend to describe the spread of the pandemic in a precise and detailed manner.
Its role is to adjust the available data: its complexity is therefore adjusted
to the amount of information available in the data. Indeed very few parameters
are needed to properly describe the outcome of interest, and the prediction
proves stable over time. The model, the parameter estimation algorithm, the
method for model selection as well as several plotting routines have been
implemented in an interactive, easy to use, web application that allows to
visualize the data and the fitted model for several countries
(http://shiny.webpopix.org/covidix/app2/). The data used in this application are
updated frequently in order to be able to follow on a day-to-day basis what the
model predicts for several countries.
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Viernes 5/6 a las 10:30, https://us02web.zoom.us/j/9432620988

Contacto: Alejandro Cholaquidis - acholaquidis en hotmail.com
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"Seminario interdisciplinario de matemática, probabilidad, estadística,
epidemiología, biología ...con el objetivo de intentar comprender la pandemia
causada por el virus SARS-CoV-2"

http://www.cmat.edu.uy/~mordecki/seminario/

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/9432620988

charlas disponibles en

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCOPZEOrLSAYPz2qCAL-KqMg?view_as=subscriber


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