[Probabilidad-Estadistica-Seminario] Seminario de Probabilidad y Estadística - Daniel Ciganda (Instituto de Estadística, Udelar - Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Nicolas Todd CNRS - Musée de l'Homme)

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Seminario de Probabilidad y Estadística
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Título: "Modeling the Age Pattern of Fertility: An Individual-Level Approach"

Expositor: Daniel Ciganda (Instituto de Estadística, Udelar - Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research  Nicolas Todd  CNRS - Musée de l'Homme)

Resumen:
 
Macro-level modeling remains the dominant approach in many demographic
applications, including population projections. Individual-level models tend to
require larger amounts of data and very often cannot be estimated. The approach
we introduce in this article attempts to overcome these limitations. Using
likelihood-free inference techniques, we show that it is possible to infer the
parameters of an individual-level model of the reproductive process from a set
of aggregate fertility rates. By estimating individual-level quantities from
widely available aggregate data, this approach can contribute to a better
understanding of reproductive behavior and its driving mechanisms. It also
allows for a more direct link between individual-level and population-level
processes. We illustrate our approach using data from three natural fertility
populations. The models we introduce can be readily applied in biodemography, to
study the reproductive process in non-human populations
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https://salavirtual-
udelar.zoom.us/j/88544669179?pwd=UlBHdWRWdEZVMGw0akpPeEd0VWJzZz09

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