[Probabilidad-Estadistica-Seminario] Seminario de Probabilidad y Estadística -- Viernes 23 de febrero -- 10:30 horas

[Andrés Sosa]

Hola

Este *viernes 23 de febrero a las 10:30 horas* en el salón de seminarios
del Centro de Matemática hablará Jean-Michel Poggi (Univ. Paris-Descartes
and LMO, Lab. Maths Orsay, Univ. Paris-Sud, France) en una sesión especial
del seminario de Probabilidad y Estadística.

El título de la charla es: *Sequential Aggregation of Heterogeneous Experts
for PM10 Forecasting.*

Saludos.
Andrés







*Resumen:Within the framework of air quality monitoring in Normandy, we
experiment the methods of sequential aggregation for forecasting
concentrations of PM10 of the next day. Besides the field of application
and the adaptation to the special context of the work of the forecaster,
the main originality of this work is that the set of experts contains at
the same time statistical models built by means of various methods and
groups of predictors, as well as experts which are deterministic chemical
models of prediction modeling pollution, weather and atmosphere.Numerical
results on recent data from April 2013 until March 2015, on three
monitoring stations, illustrate and compare various methods of aggregation.
The obtained results show that such a strategy improves clearly the
performances of the best expert both in errors and in alerts and reaches
the “unbiasedness” of observed-forecasted scatterplot, which is especially
difficult to obtain by usual methods.Joint work with Benjamin Auder (Univ.
Paris-Sud Orsay, France), Michel Bobbia (Atmo Normandie, Rouen, France) and
Bruno Portier (LMI., INSA Rouen, France).*







*More details can be found inB. Auder, M. Bobbia, J-M. Poggi, B.
PortierSequential Aggregation of Heterogeneous Experts for PM10
ForecastingAtmospheric Pollution Research, 7, 1101-1109, 2016*
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